Axel Barry

Université de Sherbrooke
M.Sc. candidate

Supervisor: Guillaume Blanchet
Start: 2021-01-04


Optimization of health care management of COPD patients
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a degenerative disease affecting aging people around the world. It is a disease that causes shortness of breath in affected individuals, diminishing their quality of life. The older the person gets, the more likely the disease is to lead to hospitalization: something we obviously want to avoid. The goal of my project is to use integral projection models (IPM; a type of model combining statistics and mathematics developed in ecology) to predict the evolution of COPD according to the healthcare trajectory taken by a patient, his age, but also several other variables that can influence the health status of COPD patients, such as stress and physical activity level. To measure the health status of the patient, a COPD health index will be created, allowing us to have a quantitative response variable. The MPIs allow us to better understand and predict changes in the vital rates of a population according to the characteristics of the individuals that compose it. In addition to providing a tool to help health care professionals make better decisions regarding the care trajectory of their patients, MPIs will also allow to adapt the management of the health care system for COPD patients.Our hypothesis is that the MPIs will allow to predict the break points in the management of COPD patients in the province of Quebec, but also to effectively predict the individual pathway of COPD patients by knowing their medical history.


COPD, MPOC, healthcare trajectory, Integrative projecting model , IPM, Maladie pulmonaire obstructive chronique, Trajectoire de soins